Circular Brackets
The Improbability Index

Every run that beat the odds

All 404 knockout runs across 103 tournaments that were less likely than a coin flip — ranked by how improbable they were, from mildly surprising to Greece.

Method: each team's Elo rating entering the tournament (clubs: entering the knockouts) sets a win probability for every knockout victory they actually achieved; multiplying those together gives the odds of the whole run. Penalty shootouts count as the near coin flips they are. A tournament's runs join the index once it finishes and its final result is scored.

1
Panathinaikos
Champions League 1971Runner-up
R16 Slovan Bratislava 21% · QF Everton 9% · SF Red Star Belgrade 56%
1 in 93
odds of the run
2
Greece
Euro 2004🏆 Champion
QF France 18% · SF Czech Republic 28% · F Portugal 24%
1 in 81
odds of the run
3
Argentina
World Cup 1990Runner-up
R16 Brazil 24% · QF Yugoslavia 36% pens · SF Italy 17% pens
1 in 66
odds of the run
4
Feyenoord
Champions League 1963Semifinals
R16 Vasas 11% · QF Reims 17%
1 in 53
odds of the run
5
Liverpool
Champions League 2005🏆 Champion
R16 Bayer Leverkusen 46% · QF Juventus 42% · SF Chelsea 29% · F AC Milan 38% pens
1 in 47
odds of the run
6
Saint-Étienne
Champions League 1976Runner-up
R16 Rangers 38% · QF Dynamo Kyiv 25% · SF PSV Eindhoven 26%
1 in 42
odds of the run
7
Sevilla
Europa League 2023🏆 Champion
R16 Fenerbahçe 57% · QF Man United 28% · SF Juventus 39% · F Roma 41% pens
1 in 39
odds of the run
8
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2026🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 49% · QF Liverpool 46% · SF Bayern Munich 41% · F Arsenal 30% pens
1 in 36
odds of the run
9
Chelsea
Champions League 2021🏆 Champion
R16 Atlético Madrid 39% · QF Porto 58% · SF Real Madrid 43% · F Manchester City 29%
1 in 36
odds of the run
10
Eintracht Frankfurt
Europa League 2022🏆 Champion
R16 Real Betis 46% · QF Barcelona 29% · SF West Ham United 37% · F Rangers 59% pens
1 in 35
odds of the run
11
Chelsea
Champions League 2012🏆 Champion
R16 Napoli 66% · QF Benfica 46% · SF Barcelona 23% · F Bayern Munich 42% pens
1 in 34
odds of the run
12
Atalanta
Europa League 2024🏆 Champion
R16 Sporting CP 51% · QF Liverpool 28% · SF Marseille 59% · F Bayer Leverkusen 36%
1 in 33
odds of the run
13
Partizan
Champions League 1966Runner-up
R16 Werder Bremen 31% · QF Sparta Prague 39% · SF Manchester United 26%
1 in 33
odds of the run
14
Morocco
World Cup 2022Semifinals
R16 Spain 16% pens · QF Portugal 20%
1 in 31
odds of the run
15
Lyon
Champions League 2020Semifinals
R16 Juventus 23% · QF Manchester City 15%
1 in 29
odds of the run
16
Real Madrid
Champions League 2022🏆 Champion
R16 Paris Saint-Germain 52% · QF Chelsea 51% · SF Manchester City 38% · F Liverpool 41%
1 in 24
odds of the run
17
Argentina
World Cup 1986🏆 Champion
R16 Uruguay 56% · QF England 34% · SF Belgium 57% · F West Germany 41%
1 in 23
odds of the run
18
Aston Villa
Champions League 1982🏆 Champion
R16 BFC Dynamo 47% · QF Dynamo Kyiv 55% · SF Anderlecht 51% · F Bayern Munich 35%
1 in 22
odds of the run
19
Braga
Europa League 2011Runner-up
R16 Liverpool 34% · QF Dynamo Kyiv 41% · SF Benfica 34%
1 in 22
odds of the run
20
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2001🏆 Champion
QF Manchester United 36% · SF Real Madrid 35% · F Valencia 39% pens
1 in 20
odds of the run
21
Villarreal
Europa League 2021🏆 Champion
R16 Dynamo Kyiv 66% · QF Dinamo Zagreb 61% · SF Arsenal 42% · F Manchester United 31% pens
1 in 19
odds of the run
22
Atlético Madrid
Europa League 2010🏆 Champion
R16 Sporting CP 55% · QF Valencia 44% · SF Liverpool 39% · F Fulham 55%
1 in 19
odds of the run
23
Ajax
Champions League 2019Semifinals
R16 Real Madrid 24% · QF Juventus 22%
1 in 19
odds of the run
24
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Europa League 2015Runner-up
R16 Ajax 41% · QF Club Brugge 46% · SF Napoli 30%
1 in 18
odds of the run
25
Inter Milan
Champions League 2010🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 43% · QF CSKA Moscow 75% · SF Barcelona 35% · F Bayern Munich 51%
1 in 17
odds of the run
26
FC Porto
Champions League 2004🏆 Champion
R16 Manchester United 42% · QF Lyon 58% · SF Deportivo La Coruña 45% · F AS Monaco 56%
1 in 17
odds of the run
27
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2025🏆 Champion
R16 Liverpool 42% pens · QF Aston Villa 72% · SF Arsenal 45% · F Inter Milan 50%
1 in 15
odds of the run
28
AC Milan
Champions League 2007🏆 Champion
R16 Celtic 73% · QF Bayern Munich 59% · SF Manchester United 36% · F Liverpool 44%
1 in 15
odds of the run
29
Widzew Łódź
Champions League 1983Semifinals
R16 Rapid Wien 50% · QF Liverpool 14%
1 in 14
odds of the run
30
Red Star Belgrade
Champions League 1971Semifinals
R16 UTA Arad 35% · QF Carl Zeiss Jena 20%
1 in 14
odds of the run
31
Real Madrid
Champions League 1998🏆 Champion
QF Bayer Leverkusen 43% · SF Borussia Dortmund 45% · F Juventus 37%
1 in 14
odds of the run
32
Liverpool
Europa League 2016Runner-up
R16 Manchester United 47% · QF Borussia Dortmund 37% · SF Villarreal 41%
1 in 14
odds of the run
33
Sevilla
Europa League 2014🏆 Champion
R16 Real Betis 67% pens · QF FC Porto 51% · SF Valencia 49% · F Benfica 43% pens
1 in 14
odds of the run
34
Brazil
World Cup 2002🏆 Champion
R16 Belgium 54% · QF England 42% · SF Turkey 65% · F Germany 50%
1 in 14
odds of the run
35
Rangers
Europa League 2022Runner-up
R16 Crvena zvezda 47% · QF Braga 55% · SF RB Leipzig 30%
1 in 13
odds of the run
36
Bulgaria
World Cup 1994Semifinals
R16 Mexico 38% pens · QF Germany 20%
1 in 13
odds of the run
37
Real Madrid
Champions League 2000🏆 Champion
QF Manchester United 35% · SF Bayern Munich 46% · F Valencia 49%
1 in 13
odds of the run
38
Arsenal
Champions League 2006Runner-up
R16 Real Madrid 43% · QF Juventus 36% · SF Villarreal 51%
1 in 13
odds of the run
39
Liverpool
Champions League 2019🏆 Champion
R16 Bayern Munich 52% · QF Porto 69% · SF Barcelona 40% · F Tottenham Hotspur 56%
1 in 13
odds of the run
40
Sporting CP
Europa League 2012Semifinals
R16 Manchester City 19% · QF Metalist Kharkiv 41%
1 in 13
odds of the run
41
Italy
Euro 2020🏆 Champion
R16 Austria 82% · QF Belgium 38% · SF Spain 47% pens · F England 55% pens
1 in 12
odds of the run
42
Athletic Club
Europa League 2012Runner-up
R16 Manchester United 28% · QF Schalke 04 47% · SF Sporting CP 63%
1 in 12
odds of the run
43
Fulham
Europa League 2010Runner-up
R16 Juventus 46% · QF VfL Wolfsburg 44% · SF Hamburger SV 42%
1 in 12
odds of the run
44
Manchester United
Champions League 1999🏆 Champion
QF Inter Milan 45% · SF Juventus 47% · F Bayern Munich 42%
1 in 12
odds of the run
45
Italy
Euro 2012Runner-up
QF England 35% pens · SF Germany 25%
1 in 12
odds of the run
46
South Korea
World Cup 2002Semifinals
R16 Italy 27% · QF Spain 32% pens
1 in 12
odds of the run
47
Milan
Champions League 1990🏆 Champion
R16 Real Madrid 47% · QF Mechelen 59% · SF Bayern Munich 48% · F Benfica 66%
1 in 11
odds of the run
48
Dinamo București
Champions League 1984Semifinals
R16 Hamburger SV 18% · QF Dinamo Minsk 50%
1 in 11
odds of the run
49
Italy
World Cup 1982🏆 Champion
SF Poland 41% · F West Germany 22%
1 in 11
odds of the run
50
Barcelona
Champions League 2009🏆 Champion
R16 Lyon 65% · QF Bayern Munich 67% · SF Chelsea 52% · F Manchester United 42%
1 in 11
odds of the run
51
Atlético Madrid
Europa League 2012🏆 Champion
R16 Beşiktaş 72% · QF Hannover 96 57% · SF Valencia 44% · F Athletic Club 52%
1 in 11
odds of the run
52
Wales
Euro 2016Semifinals
R16 Northern Ireland 54% · QF Belgium 18%
1 in 10
odds of the run
53
Italy
World Cup 2006🏆 Champion
R16 Australia 70% · QF Ukraine 71% · SF Germany 43% · F France 46% pens
1 in 10
odds of the run
54
Liverpool
Champions League 2007Runner-up
R16 Barcelona 39% · QF PSV Eindhoven 64% · SF Chelsea 40% pens
1 in 10
odds of the run
55
Portugal
Euro 2016🏆 Champion
R16 Croatia 63% · QF Poland 70% pens · SF Wales 81% · F France 28%
1 in 10
odds of the run
56
Brazil
World Cup 1994🏆 Champion
R16 United States 81% · QF Netherlands 46% · SF Sweden 58% · F Italy 47% pens
1 in 10
odds of the run
57
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2021Semifinals
R16 Barcelona 41% · QF Bayern Munich 26%
1 in 10
odds of the run
58
Real Madrid
Champions League 1976Semifinals
R16 Derby County 39% · QF Borussia Mönchengladbach 27%
1 in 10
odds of the run
59
Spain
Euro 2024🏆 Champion
R16 Georgia 89% · QF Germany 50% · SF France 42% · F England 56%
1 in 10
odds of the run
60
Real Madrid
Champions League 2024🏆 Champion
R16 RB Leipzig 73% · QF Manchester City 39% · SF Bayern Munich 55% · F Borussia Dortmund 67%
1 in 9.5
odds of the run
61
PSV Eindhoven
Champions League 1988🏆 Champion
R16 Rapid Wien 67% · QF Bordeaux 70% · SF Real Madrid 35% · F Benfica 66% pens
1 in 9.3
odds of the run
62
Real Madrid
Champions League 1957🏆 Champion
R16 Rapid Wien 62% · QF Nice 73% · SF Manchester United 45% · F Fiorentina 54%
1 in 9.3
odds of the run
63
Germany
World Cup 2014🏆 Champion
R16 Algeria 93% · QF France 74% · SF Brazil 28% · F Argentina 58%
1 in 9.1
odds of the run
64
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 2016Runner-up
R16 PSV Eindhoven 79% pens · QF Barcelona 34% · SF Bayern Munich 42%
1 in 9.0
odds of the run
65
Croatia
World Cup 2018Runner-up
R16 Denmark 50% pens · QF Russia 61% pens · SF England 37%
1 in 9.0
odds of the run
66
Milan
Champions League 2003🏆 Champion
QF Ajax 58% · SF Inter Milan 47% · F Juventus 41% pens
1 in 8.9
odds of the run
67
Bodø/Glimt
Europa League 2025Semifinals
R16 Olympiacos 43% · QF Lazio 27%
1 in 8.8
odds of the run
68
FC Basel
Europa League 2013Semifinals
R16 Zenit 36% · QF Tottenham Hotspur 32% pens
1 in 8.7
odds of the run
69
Real Madrid
Champions League 2018🏆 Champion
R16 Paris Saint-Germain 62% · QF Juventus 54% · SF Bayern Munich 54% · F Liverpool 65%
1 in 8.7
odds of the run
70
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2013🏆 Champion
R16 Arsenal 75% · QF Juventus 72% · SF Barcelona 37% · F Borussia Dortmund 58%
1 in 8.6
odds of the run
71
Ajax
Europa League 2017Runner-up
R16 FC Copenhagen 54% · QF Schalke 04 46% · SF Lyon 47%
1 in 8.5
odds of the run
72
Marseille
Europa League 2018Runner-up
R16 Athletic Club 48% · QF RB Leipzig 52% · SF Red Bull Salzburg 47%
1 in 8.5
odds of the run
73
Villarreal
Champions League 2022Semifinals
R16 Juventus 47% · QF Bayern Munich 25%
1 in 8.5
odds of the run
74
France
World Cup 2006Runner-up
R16 Spain 51% · QF Brazil 41% · SF Portugal 58%
1 in 8.3
odds of the run
75
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 2024Runner-up
R16 PSV Eindhoven 56% · QF Atlético Madrid 47% · SF Paris Saint-Germain 46%
1 in 8.2
odds of the run
76
France
World Cup 2018🏆 Champion
R16 Argentina 50% · QF Uruguay 63% · SF Belgium 57% · F Croatia 68%
1 in 8.1
odds of the run
77
Juventus
Champions League 2015Runner-up
R16 Borussia Dortmund 63% · QF AS Monaco 73% · SF Real Madrid 27%
1 in 8.1
odds of the run
78
Man United
Europa League 2025Runner-up
R16 Real Sociedad 55% · QF Lyon 52% · SF Athletic Club 43%
1 in 8.0
odds of the run
79
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 2014Runner-up
R16 AC Milan 74% · QF Barcelona 35% · SF Chelsea 49%
1 in 7.9
odds of the run
80
Croatia
World Cup 1998Semifinals
R16 Romania 49% · QF Germany 26%
1 in 7.9
odds of the run
81
Liverpool
Champions League 1984🏆 Champion
R16 Athletic Bilbao 57% · QF Benfica 53% · SF Dinamo București 71% · F Roma 59% pens
1 in 7.9
odds of the run
82
Manchester United
Champions League 2008🏆 Champion
R16 Lyon 72% · QF Roma 69% · SF Barcelona 50% · F Chelsea 52% pens
1 in 7.8
odds of the run
83
AC Milan
Champions League 2023Semifinals
R16 Tottenham Hotspur 40% · QF Napoli 32%
1 in 7.7
odds of the run
84
Belgium
World Cup 1986Semifinals
R16 Soviet Union 34% · QF Spain 39% pens
1 in 7.6
odds of the run
85
Roma
Champions League 2018Semifinals
R16 Shakhtar Donetsk 60% · QF Barcelona 22%
1 in 7.6
odds of the run
86
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 1997🏆 Champion
QF Auxerre 60% · SF Manchester United 56% · F Juventus 40%
1 in 7.5
odds of the run
87
West Germany
World Cup 1990🏆 Champion
R16 Netherlands 44% · QF Czechoslovakia 69% · SF England 57% pens · F Argentina 76%
1 in 7.5
odds of the run
88
Inter Milan
Europa League 2020Runner-up
R16 Getafe 51% · QF Bayer Leverkusen 47% · SF Shakhtar Donetsk 57%
1 in 7.4
odds of the run
89
Celtic
Champions League 1970Runner-up
R16 Benfica 68% · QF Fiorentina 48% · SF Leeds United 42%
1 in 7.4
odds of the run
90
Sevilla
Europa League 2016🏆 Champion
R16 FC Basel 69% · QF Athletic Club 54% pens · SF Shakhtar Donetsk 59% · F Liverpool 62%
1 in 7.4
odds of the run
91
Croatia
World Cup 2022Semifinals
R16 Japan 69% pens · QF Brazil 20% pens
1 in 7.3
odds of the run
92
Morocco
World Cup 2026Quarterfinals
R32 Netherlands 33% pens · R16 Canada 41%
1 in 7.3
odds of the run
93
SC Freiburg
Europa League 2026Runner-up
R16 Genk 62% · QF Celta Vigo 46% · SF Braga 49%
1 in 7.2
odds of the run
94
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2012Runner-up
R16 FC Basel 75% · QF Marseille 64% · SF Real Madrid 29% pens
1 in 7.2
odds of the run
95
Real Madrid
Champions League 2014🏆 Champion
R16 Schalke 04 77% · QF Borussia Dortmund 67% · SF Bayern Munich 41% · F Atlético Madrid 66%
1 in 7.1
odds of the run
96
Inter Milan
Champions League 2023Runner-up
R16 Porto 49% · QF Benfica 50% · SF AC Milan 58%
1 in 7.1
odds of the run
97
Sevilla
Europa League 2015🏆 Champion
R16 Villarreal 50% · QF Zenit 57% · SF Fiorentina 63% · F Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 78%
1 in 7.1
odds of the run
98
Ajax
Champions League 1972🏆 Champion
R16 Marseille 78% · QF Arsenal 51% · SF Benfica 70% · F Inter Milan 52%
1 in 7.0
odds of the run
99
Club Brugge
Champions League 1978Runner-up
R16 Panathinaikos 78% · QF Atlético Madrid 50% · SF Juventus 37%
1 in 6.9
odds of the run
100
AC Milan
Champions League 2005Runner-up
R16 Manchester United 43% · QF Inter Milan 57% · SF PSV Eindhoven 59%
1 in 6.9
odds of the run
101
Inter Milan
Champions League 1964🏆 Champion
R16 Monaco 73% · QF Partizan 78% · SF Borussia Dortmund 75% · F Real Madrid 34%
1 in 6.9
odds of the run
102
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 2013Runner-up
R16 Shakhtar Donetsk 60% · QF Málaga 67% · SF Real Madrid 36%
1 in 6.9
odds of the run
103
Turkey
World Cup 2002Semifinals
R16 Japan 25% · QF Senegal 58%
1 in 6.9
odds of the run
104
Ajax
Champions League 1971🏆 Champion
R16 Basel 80% · QF Celtic 40% · SF Atlético Madrid 52% · F Panathinaikos 89%
1 in 6.8
odds of the run
105
Austria Wien
Champions League 1979Semifinals
R16 Lillestrøm 63% · QF Dynamo Dresden 23%
1 in 6.8
odds of the run
106
Liverpool
Champions League 2018Runner-up
R16 FC Porto 66% · QF Manchester City 38% · SF Roma 59%
1 in 6.8
odds of the run
107
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2020🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 65% · QF Barcelona 47% · SF Lyon 82% · F Paris Saint-Germain 60%
1 in 6.8
odds of the run
108
Lyon
Champions League 2010Semifinals
R16 Real Madrid 34% · QF Bordeaux 44%
1 in 6.8
odds of the run
109
Iceland
Euro 2016Quarterfinals
R16 England 15%
1 in 6.8
odds of the run
110
Galatasaray
Champions League 1970Quarterfinals
R16 Spartak Trnava 15%
1 in 6.7
odds of the run
111
Ajax
Champions League 1969Runner-up
R16 Fenerbahçe 85% · QF Benfica 34% · SF Spartak Trnava 54%
1 in 6.5
odds of the run
112
Chelsea
Europa League 2019🏆 Champion
R16 Dynamo Kyiv 72% · QF Slavia Prague 75% · SF Eintracht Frankfurt 60% pens · F Arsenal 48%
1 in 6.5
odds of the run
113
Roma
Europa League 2023Runner-up
R16 Real Sociedad 52% · QF Feyenoord 57% · SF Bayer Leverkusen 52%
1 in 6.4
odds of the run
114
Juventus
Champions League 2017Runner-up
R16 FC Porto 70% · QF Barcelona 35% · SF AS Monaco 65%
1 in 6.3
odds of the run
115
Chelsea
Europa League 2013🏆 Champion
R16 Steaua Bucharest 75% · QF Rubin Kazan 67% · SF FC Basel 69% · F Benfica 46%
1 in 6.2
odds of the run
116
Valencia
Champions League 2000Runner-up
QF Lazio 42% · SF Barcelona 38%
1 in 6.2
odds of the run
117
Barcelona
Champions League 2006🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 50% · QF Benfica 85% · SF AC Milan 58% · F Arsenal 66%
1 in 6.2
odds of the run
118
Portugal
World Cup 2006Semifinals
R16 Netherlands 39% · QF England 42% pens
1 in 6.2
odds of the run
119
Benfica
Champions League 1968Runner-up
R16 Saint-Étienne 63% · QF Vasas 56% · SF Juventus 46%
1 in 6.1
odds of the run
120
Barcelona
Champions League 2015🏆 Champion
R16 Manchester City 64% · QF Paris Saint-Germain 76% · SF Bayern Munich 49% · F Juventus 69%
1 in 6.1
odds of the run
121
Tottenham Hotspur
Champions League 2019Runner-up
R16 Borussia Dortmund 57% · QF Manchester City 40% · SF Ajax 72%
1 in 6.0
odds of the run
122
Liverpool
Champions League 2008Semifinals
R16 Inter Milan 41% · QF Arsenal 41%
1 in 6.0
odds of the run
123
Galatasaray
Champions League 1989Semifinals
R16 Neuchâtel Xamax 48% · QF Monaco 35%
1 in 6.0
odds of the run
124
Tottenham
Europa League 2025🏆 Champion
R16 AZ Alkmaar 70% · QF Eintracht Frankfurt 60% · SF Bodø/Glimt 73% · F Man United 55%
1 in 5.9
odds of the run
125
Juventus
Champions League 1985🏆 Champion
R16 Grasshopper 74% · QF Sparta Prague 68% · SF Bordeaux 64% · F Liverpool 53%
1 in 5.9
odds of the run
126
Manchester City
Champions League 2023🏆 Champion
R16 RB Leipzig 73% · QF Bayern Munich 52% · SF Real Madrid 62% · F Inter Milan 73%
1 in 5.8
odds of the run
127
Spain
Euro 2008🏆 Champion
QF Italy 43% pens · SF Russia 74% · F Germany 54%
1 in 5.8
odds of the run
128
Bayern Munich
Champions League 1975🏆 Champion
R16 Magdeburg 57% · QF Ararat Yerevan 73% · SF Saint-Étienne 78% · F Leeds United 53%
1 in 5.8
odds of the run
129
Nottingham Forest
Champions League 1980🏆 Champion
R16 Argeș Pitești 89% · QF BFC Dynamo 62% · SF Ajax 62% · F Hamburger SV 50%
1 in 5.8
odds of the run
130
Inter Milan
Champions League 1972Runner-up
R16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% · QF Standard Liège 69% · SF Celtic 49% pens
1 in 5.8
odds of the run
131
Russia
World Cup 2018Quarterfinals
R16 Spain 18% pens
1 in 5.7
odds of the run
132
Legia Warsaw
Champions League 1970Semifinals
R16 Saint-Étienne 24% · QF Galatasaray 73%
1 in 5.6
odds of the run
133
Manchester United
Europa League 2017🏆 Champion
R16 FC Rostov 66% · QF Anderlecht 67% · SF Celta Vigo 62% · F Ajax 66%
1 in 5.6
odds of the run
134
West Germany
World Cup 1986Runner-up
R16 Morocco 85% · QF Mexico 50% pens · SF France 42%
1 in 5.6
odds of the run
135
Ajax
Champions League 1995🏆 Champion
QF Hajduk Split 81% · SF Bayern Munich 55% · F Milan 41%
1 in 5.6
odds of the run
136
PSV Eindhoven
Champions League 2005Semifinals
R16 AS Monaco 45% · QF Lyon 40% pens
1 in 5.6
odds of the run
137
Spain
World Cup 2026🏆 Champion
R32 Austria 87% · R16 Portugal 73% · QF Belgium 82% · SF France 63% · F Argentina 56%
1 in 5.5
odds of the run
138
Schalke 04
Champions League 2011Semifinals
R16 Valencia 43% · QF Inter Milan 43%
1 in 5.4
odds of the run
139
Real Madrid
Champions League 2002🏆 Champion
QF Bayern Munich 54% · SF Barcelona 60% · F Bayer Leverkusen 57%
1 in 5.4
odds of the run
140
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2010Runner-up
R16 Fiorentina 71% · QF Manchester United 42% · SF Lyon 62%
1 in 5.4
odds of the run
141
Benfica
Europa League 2014Runner-up
R16 Tottenham Hotspur 52% · QF AZ Alkmaar 87% · SF Juventus 42%
1 in 5.3
odds of the run
142
Belgium
World Cup 2018Semifinals
R16 Japan 81% · QF Brazil 23%
1 in 5.3
odds of the run
143
Italy
Euro 2000Runner-up
QF Romania 60% · SF Netherlands 32% pens
1 in 5.3
odds of the run
144
Manchester United
Champions League 1968🏆 Champion
R16 Sarajevo 83% · QF Górnik Zabrze 86% · SF Real Madrid 43% · F Benfica 62%
1 in 5.2
odds of the run
145
Rapid Wien
Champions League 1969Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 19%
1 in 5.2
odds of the run
146
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 2020Quarterfinals
R16 Liverpool 19%
1 in 5.2
odds of the run
147
Real Madrid
Champions League 2017🏆 Champion
R16 Napoli 79% · QF Bayern Munich 56% · SF Atlético Madrid 65% · F Juventus 68%
1 in 5.2
odds of the run
148
AS Monaco
Champions League 2017Semifinals
R16 Manchester City 46% · QF Borussia Dortmund 43%
1 in 5.1
odds of the run
149
Újpesti Dózsa
Champions League 1974Semifinals
R16 Benfica 33% · QF Spartak Trnava 58% pens
1 in 5.1
odds of the run
150
Górnik Zabrze
Champions League 1968Quarterfinals
R16 Dynamo Kyiv 20%
1 in 5.1
odds of the run
151
Milan
Champions League 1958Runner-up
R16 Rangers 55% · QF Borussia Dortmund 78% · SF Manchester United 46%
1 in 5.1
odds of the run
152
Saint-Étienne
Champions League 1975Semifinals
R16 Hajduk Split 42% · QF Ruch Chorzów 48%
1 in 5.0
odds of the run
153
Liverpool
Champions League 1978🏆 Champion
R16 Dynamo Dresden 63% · QF Benfica 72% · SF Borussia Mönchengladbach 64% · F Club Brugge 69%
1 in 5.0
odds of the run
154
Juventus
Champions League 1973Runner-up
R16 Magdeburg 73% · QF Újpesti Dózsa 59% · SF Derby County 47%
1 in 5.0
odds of the run
155
Lyon
Europa League 2017Semifinals
R16 Roma 37% · QF Beşiktaş 54% pens
1 in 5.0
odds of the run
156
Rangers
Champions League 1979Quarterfinals
R16 PSV Eindhoven 20%
1 in 5.0
odds of the run
157
Fenerbahçe
Europa League 2013Semifinals
R16 Viktoria Plzeň 45% · QF Lazio 46%
1 in 4.9
odds of the run
158
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 2026Semifinals
R16 Tottenham Hotspur 57% · QF Barcelona 36%
1 in 4.9
odds of the run
159
Barcelona
Champions League 2011🏆 Champion
R16 Arsenal 71% · QF Shakhtar Donetsk 76% · SF Real Madrid 61% · F Manchester United 63%
1 in 4.9
odds of the run
160
England
Euro 2020Runner-up
R16 Germany 57% · QF Ukraine 72% · SF Denmark 51%
1 in 4.8
odds of the run
161
Ajax
Champions League 1967Quarterfinals
R16 Liverpool 21%
1 in 4.8
odds of the run
162
Juventus
Champions League 1983Runner-up
R16 Standard Liège 49% · QF Aston Villa 56% · SF Widzew Łódź 78%
1 in 4.8
odds of the run
163
Hibernian
Champions League 1956Semifinals
R16 Rot-Weiss Essen 38% · QF Djurgården 55%
1 in 4.7
odds of the run
164
Juventus
Champions League 2003Runner-up
QF Barcelona 53% · SF Real Madrid 40%
1 in 4.7
odds of the run
165
Czech Republic
Euro 1996Runner-up
QF Portugal 56% · SF France 38% pens
1 in 4.7
odds of the run
166
Roma
Europa League 2024Semifinals
R16 Brighton 51% · QF AC Milan 42%
1 in 4.7
odds of the run
167
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2020Runner-up
R16 Borussia Dortmund 57% · QF Atalanta 64% · SF RB Leipzig 59%
1 in 4.6
odds of the run
168
Bayern Munich
Champions League 1987Runner-up
R16 Austria Wien 69% · QF Anderlecht 63% · SF Real Madrid 51%
1 in 4.6
odds of the run
169
Red Bull Salzburg
Europa League 2018Semifinals
R16 Borussia Dortmund 45% · QF Lazio 49%
1 in 4.6
odds of the run
170
Inter Milan
Champions League 2025Runner-up
R16 Feyenoord 75% · QF Bayern Munich 55% · SF Barcelona 54%
1 in 4.6
odds of the run
171
RB Leipzig
Champions League 2020Semifinals
R16 Tottenham Hotspur 47% · QF Atlético Madrid 47%
1 in 4.5
odds of the run
172
Germany
World Cup 2002Runner-up
R16 Paraguay 69% · QF United States 59% · SF South Korea 55%
1 in 4.5
odds of the run
173
Villarreal
Europa League 2011Semifinals
R16 Bayer Leverkusen 41% · QF FC Twente 54%
1 in 4.5
odds of the run
174
Benfica
Champions League 1990Runner-up
R16 Budapesti Honvéd 81% · QF Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 50% · SF Marseille 56%
1 in 4.4
odds of the run
175
Marseille
Europa League 2024Semifinals
R16 Villarreal 52% · QF Benfica 43%
1 in 4.4
odds of the run
176
Bayer Leverkusen
Champions League 2002Runner-up
QF Liverpool 48% · SF Manchester United 48%
1 in 4.4
odds of the run
177
Manchester City
Champions League 2016Semifinals
R16 Dynamo Kyiv 61% · QF Paris Saint-Germain 39%
1 in 4.2
odds of the run
178
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 1971Semifinals
R16 Cagliari 38% · QF Legia Warsaw 62%
1 in 4.2
odds of the run
179
Germany
World Cup 2010Semifinals
R16 England 44% · QF Argentina 55%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
180
Grasshopper
Champions League 1979Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 24%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
181
Switzerland
Euro 2020Quarterfinals
R16 France 24% pens
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
182
Juventus
Champions League 1996🏆 Champion
QF Real Madrid 69% · SF Nantes 76% · F Ajax 46% pens
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
183
Real Madrid
Champions League 1966🏆 Champion
R16 Kilmarnock 77% · QF Anderlecht 78% · SF Inter Milan 48% · F Partizan 84%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
184
Milan
Champions League 1963🏆 Champion
R16 Ipswich Town 74% · QF Galatasaray 88% · SF Dundee 71% · F Benfica 53%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
185
Fiorentina
Europa League 2015Semifinals
R16 Roma 45% · QF Dynamo Kyiv 55%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
186
France
World Cup 1998🏆 Champion
R16 Paraguay 89% · QF Italy 68% pens · SF Croatia 79% · F Brazil 52%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
187
Standard Liège
Champions League 1970Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 25%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
188
Chelsea
Champions League 2004Semifinals
R16 VfB Stuttgart 63% · QF Arsenal 39%
1 in 4.1
odds of the run
189
Hamburger SV
Champions League 1983🏆 Champion
R16 Olympiacos 88% · QF Dynamo Kyiv 69% · SF Real Sociedad 62% · F Juventus 66%
1 in 4.0
odds of the run
190
Switzerland
World Cup 2026Quarterfinals
R32 Algeria 67% · R16 Colombia 37% pens
1 in 4.0
odds of the run
191
Roma
Europa League 2021Semifinals
R16 Shakhtar Donetsk 52% · QF Ajax 48%
1 in 4.0
odds of the run
192
Benfica
Champions League 2006Quarterfinals
R16 Liverpool 25%
1 in 4.0
odds of the run
193
AC Milan
Champions League 2006Semifinals
R16 Bayern Munich 52% · QF Lyon 49%
1 in 3.9
odds of the run
194
Czech Republic
Euro 2020Quarterfinals
R16 Netherlands 26%
1 in 3.9
odds of the run
195
Union Saint-Gilloise
Europa League 2023Quarterfinals
R16 Union Berlin 26%
1 in 3.8
odds of the run
196
Germany
Euro 1996🏆 Champion
QF Croatia 68% · SF England 57% pens · F Czech Republic 68%
1 in 3.8
odds of the run
197
Sporting CP
Europa League 2023Quarterfinals
R16 Arsenal 27%
1 in 3.8
odds of the run
198
Leeds United
Champions League 1975Runner-up
R16 Újpesti Dózsa 61% · QF Anderlecht 76% · SF Barcelona 58%
1 in 3.7
odds of the run
199
Deportivo La Coruña
Champions League 2004Semifinals
R16 Juventus 52% · QF AC Milan 52%
1 in 3.7
odds of the run
200
Russia
Euro 2008Semifinals
QF Netherlands 27%
1 in 3.7
odds of the run
201
Cameroon
World Cup 1990Quarterfinals
R16 Colombia 27%
1 in 3.7
odds of the run
202
Athletic Bilbao
Champions League 1957Quarterfinals
R16 Budapest Honvéd 27%
1 in 3.7
odds of the run
203
West Ham United
Europa League 2022Semifinals
R16 Sevilla 47% · QF Lyon 59%
1 in 3.6
odds of the run
204
France
Euro 2000🏆 Champion
QF Spain 57% · SF Portugal 71% · F Italy 69%
1 in 3.6
odds of the run
205
Senegal
World Cup 2002Quarterfinals
R16 Sweden 28%
1 in 3.6
odds of the run
206
Netherlands
World Cup 2010Runner-up
R16 Slovakia 90% · QF Brazil 41% · SF Uruguay 76%
1 in 3.6
odds of the run
207
Eintracht Frankfurt
Europa League 2019Semifinals
R16 Inter Milan 55% · QF Benfica 51%
1 in 3.6
odds of the run
208
Sevilla
Champions League 2018Quarterfinals
R16 Manchester United 28%
1 in 3.6
odds of the run
209
Bordeaux
Champions League 1985Semifinals
R16 Dinamo București 50% · QF Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 56% pens
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
210
Argentina
World Cup 2014Runner-up
R16 Switzerland 72% · QF Belgium 72% · SF Netherlands 55% pens
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
211
Leicester City
Champions League 2017Quarterfinals
R16 Sevilla 29%
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
212
Újpesti Dózsa
Champions League 1973Quarterfinals
R16 Celtic 29%
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
213
Juventus
Europa League 2023Semifinals
R16 SC Freiburg 52% · QF Sporting CP 55%
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
214
Aston Villa
Europa League 2026🏆 Champion
R16 Lille 75% · QF Bologna 77% · SF Nottingham Forest 65% · F SC Freiburg 77%
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
215
Netherlands
World Cup 1998Semifinals
R16 FR Yugoslavia 49% · QF Argentina 59%
1 in 3.5
odds of the run
216
Dinamo Zagreb
Europa League 2021Quarterfinals
R16 Tottenham Hotspur 29%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
217
Real Madrid
Champions League 2016🏆 Champion
R16 Roma 81% · QF VfL Wolfsburg 82% · SF Manchester City 73% · F Atlético Madrid 61% pens
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
218
Dundee
Champions League 1963Semifinals
R16 Sporting CP 41% · QF Anderlecht 72%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
219
Real Madrid
Champions League 2023Semifinals
R16 Liverpool 49% · QF Chelsea 60%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
220
Spain
World Cup 2010🏆 Champion
R16 Portugal 80% · QF Paraguay 88% · SF Germany 71% · F Netherlands 60%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
221
Real Madrid
Champions League 2021Semifinals
R16 Atalanta 61% · QF Liverpool 48%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
222
Derby County
Champions League 1973Semifinals
R16 Benfica 46% · QF Spartak Trnava 65%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
223
Hamburger SV
Champions League 1980Runner-up
R16 Dinamo Tbilisi 67% · QF Hajduk Split 73% · SF Real Madrid 61%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
224
Manchester United
Champions League 2011Runner-up
R16 Marseille 69% · QF Chelsea 60% · SF Schalke 04 73%
1 in 3.4
odds of the run
225
Barcelona
Champions League 1975Semifinals
R16 Feyenoord 34% · QF Åtvidaberg 89%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
226
Real Madrid
Champions League 1958🏆 Champion
R16 Royal Antwerp 88% · QF Sevilla 73% · SF Vasas 65% · F Milan 73%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
227
Benfica
Champions League 2022Quarterfinals
R16 Ajax 30%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
228
Monaco
Champions League 1989Quarterfinals
R16 Club Brugge 30%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
229
Chelsea
Champions League 2009Semifinals
R16 Juventus 63% · QF Liverpool 48%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
230
Brazil
World Cup 1970🏆 Champion
QF Peru 86% · SF Uruguay 69% · F Italy 51%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
231
Switzerland
Euro 2024Quarterfinals
R16 Italy 30%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
232
Real Madrid
Champions League 1956🏆 Champion
R16 Servette 93% · QF Partizan 73% · SF Milan 62% · F Reims 72%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
233
Liverpool
Champions League 1985Runner-up
R16 Benfica 55% · QF Austria Wien 69% · SF Panathinaikos 80%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
234
Norway
World Cup 2026Quarterfinals
R32 Ivory Coast 78% · R16 Brazil 39%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
235
Saint-Étienne
Champions League 1977Quarterfinals
R16 PSV Eindhoven 31%
1 in 3.3
odds of the run
236
Arsenal
Champions League 2009Semifinals
R16 Roma 56% pens · QF Villarreal 56%
1 in 3.2
odds of the run
237
Fenerbahçe
Champions League 2008Quarterfinals
R16 Sevilla 31% pens
1 in 3.2
odds of the run
238
Liverpool
Europa League 2010Semifinals
R16 Lille 57% · QF Benfica 55%
1 in 3.2
odds of the run
239
AS Monaco
Champions League 2015Quarterfinals
R16 Arsenal 31%
1 in 3.2
odds of the run
240
Dynamo Kyiv
Champions League 1977Semifinals
R16 PAOK 79% · QF Bayern Munich 40%
1 in 3.2
odds of the run
241
Inter Milan
Champions League 1965🏆 Champion
R16 Dinamo București 91% · QF Rangers 73% · SF Liverpool 79% · F Benfica 61%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
242
Argentina
World Cup 2022🏆 Champion
R16 Australia 92% · QF Netherlands 64% pens · SF Croatia 78% · F France 69% pens
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
243
England
Euro 2024Runner-up
R16 Slovakia 86% · QF Switzerland 73% pens · SF Netherlands 51%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
244
Braga
Europa League 2026Semifinals
R16 Ferencváros 73% · QF Real Betis 44%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
245
Milan
Champions League 1956Semifinals
R16 Saarbrücken 84% · QF Rapid Wien 38%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
246
Portugal
Euro 2004Runner-up
QF England 59% pens · SF Netherlands 55%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
247
Nottingham Forest
Europa League 2026Semifinals
R16 Midtjylland 63% · QF Porto 51%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
248
Benfica
Europa League 2011Semifinals
R16 Paris Saint-Germain 62% · QF PSV Eindhoven 52%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
249
Real Sociedad
Champions League 1983Semifinals
R16 Celtic 49% · QF Sporting CP 66%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
250
Belgium
World Cup 2026Quarterfinals
R32 Senegal 55% · R16 United States 60%
1 in 3.1
odds of the run
251
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2024Semifinals
R16 Real Sociedad 62% · QF Barcelona 53%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
252
Roma
Champions League 2008Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 33%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
253
Slavia Prague
Europa League 2019Quarterfinals
R16 Sevilla 33%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
254
England
World Cup 2026Semifinals
R32 Congo DR 90% · R16 Mexico 57% · QF Norway 65%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
255
Manchester United
Champions League 2009Runner-up
R16 Inter Milan 66% · QF FC Porto 74% · SF Arsenal 69%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
256
Baník Ostrava
Champions League 1981Quarterfinals
R16 BFC Dynamo 34%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
257
Roma
Champions League 2007Quarterfinals
R16 Lyon 34%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
258
Italy
Euro 2016Quarterfinals
R16 Spain 34%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
259
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2015Quarterfinals
R16 Chelsea 34%
1 in 3.0
odds of the run
260
Hamburger SV
Champions League 1961Semifinals
R16 Young Boys 67% · QF Burnley 51%
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
261
Turkey
Euro 2024Quarterfinals
R16 Austria 34%
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
262
Costa Rica
World Cup 2014Quarterfinals
R16 Greece 34% pens
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
263
Shakhtar Donetsk
Europa League 2020Semifinals
R16 VfL Wolfsburg 53% · QF FC Basel 65%
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
264
PSV Eindhoven
Champions League 2007Quarterfinals
R16 Arsenal 35%
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
265
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Champions League 1977Runner-up
R16 Torino 71% · QF Club Brugge 69% · SF Dynamo Kyiv 71%
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
266
Galatasaray
Champions League 2013Quarterfinals
R16 Schalke 04 35%
1 in 2.9
odds of the run
267
Rangers
Europa League 2025Quarterfinals
R16 Fenerbahçe 35%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
268
Bayer Leverkusen
Europa League 2024Runner-up
R16 Qarabağ 84% · QF West Ham 65% · SF Roma 64%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
269
Chelsea
Champions League 2005Semifinals
R16 Barcelona 55% · QF Bayern Munich 64%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
270
CSKA Moscow
Champions League 2010Quarterfinals
R16 Sevilla 36%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
271
Braga
Europa League 2022Quarterfinals
R16 AS Monaco 36%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
272
Manchester United
Europa League 2021Runner-up
R16 AC Milan 67% · QF Granada 78% · SF Roma 68%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
273
Chelsea
Champions League 2008Runner-up
R16 Olympiacos 77% · QF Fenerbahçe 77% · SF Liverpool 60%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
274
Barcelona
Champions League 1961Runner-up
R16 Real Madrid 48% · QF Spartak Hradec Králové 94% · SF Hamburger SV 79%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
275
APOEL
Champions League 2012Quarterfinals
R16 Lyon 36% pens
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
276
Austria Wien
Champions League 1985Quarterfinals
R16 BFC Dynamo 36%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
277
Real Madrid
Champions League 1988Semifinals
R16 Porto 67% · QF Bayern Munich 54%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
278
Paraguay
World Cup 2026Round of 16
R32 Germany 36% pens
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
279
Ghana
World Cup 2010Quarterfinals
R16 United States 36%
1 in 2.8
odds of the run
280
Nice
Champions League 1957Quarterfinals
R16 Rangers 37%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
281
Bologna
Europa League 2026Quarterfinals
R16 Roma 37%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
282
Dynamo Kyiv
Champions League 1999Semifinals
QF Real Madrid 37%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
283
Standard Liège
Europa League 2010Quarterfinals
R16 Panathinaikos 37%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
284
Sweden
World Cup 2018Quarterfinals
R16 Switzerland 37%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
285
France
World Cup 2022Runner-up
R16 Poland 75% · QF England 62% · SF Morocco 80%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
286
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2024Semifinals
R16 Lazio 73% · QF Arsenal 51%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
287
Milan
Champions League 1995Runner-up
QF Benfica 62% · SF Paris Saint-Germain 60%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
288
England
World Cup 2018Semifinals
R16 Colombia 53% pens · QF Sweden 71%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
289
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2007Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 38%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
290
Basel
Champions League 1974Quarterfinals
R16 Club Brugge 38%
1 in 2.7
odds of the run
291
France
Euro 2024Semifinals
R16 Belgium 62% · QF Portugal 61% pens
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
292
Villarreal
Europa League 2016Semifinals
R16 Bayer Leverkusen 58% · QF Sparta Prague 66%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
293
FC Basel
Europa League 2020Quarterfinals
R16 Eintracht Frankfurt 38%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
294
Arsenal
Europa League 2018Semifinals
R16 AC Milan 63% · QF CSKA Moscow 61%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
295
Málaga
Champions League 2013Quarterfinals
R16 FC Porto 38%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
296
Valencia
Champions League 2001Runner-up
QF Arsenal 61% · SF Leeds United 64%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
297
Egypt
World Cup 2026Round of 16
R32 Australia 39% pens
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
298
Argentina
World Cup 1998Quarterfinals
R16 England 39% pens
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
299
Manchester United
Champions League 1997Semifinals
QF Porto 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
300
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 2024Quarterfinals
R16 Inter Milan 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
301
Real Madrid
Champions League 1960🏆 Champion
R16 Jeunesse Esch 99% · QF Nice 84% · SF Barcelona 55% · F Eintracht Frankfurt 85%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
302
Romania
World Cup 1994Quarterfinals
R16 Argentina 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
303
Villarreal
Champions League 2006Semifinals
R16 Rangers 83% · QF Inter Milan 47%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
304
Lyon
Europa League 2022Quarterfinals
R16 FC Porto 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
305
Arsenal
Champions League 2025Semifinals
R16 PSV Eindhoven 73% · QF Real Madrid 53%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
306
Real Madrid
Champions League 2026Quarterfinals
R16 Manchester City 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
307
Dynamo Kyiv
Europa League 2011Quarterfinals
R16 Manchester City 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
308
Carl Zeiss Jena
Champions League 1971Quarterfinals
R16 Sporting CP 39%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
309
Italy
World Cup 1970Runner-up
QF Mexico 76% · SF West Germany 51%
1 in 2.6
odds of the run
310
West Germany
World Cup 1970Semifinals
QF England 39%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
311
Leeds United
Champions League 2001Semifinals
QF Deportivo La Coruña 39%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
312
Hamburger SV
Europa League 2010Semifinals
R16 Anderlecht 54% · QF Standard Liège 73%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
313
Uruguay
World Cup 2018Quarterfinals
R16 Portugal 39%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
314
Athletic Club
Europa League 2025Semifinals
R16 Roma 52% · QF Rangers 76%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
315
Porto
Champions League 2021Quarterfinals
R16 Juventus 39%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
316
Italy
World Cup 1994Runner-up
R16 Nigeria 81% · QF Spain 63% · SF Bulgaria 77%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
317
Manchester City
Champions League 2021Runner-up
R16 Gladbach 76% · QF Borussia Dortmund 75% · SF Paris Saint-Germain 69%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
318
Benfica
Europa League 2013Runner-up
R16 Bordeaux 72% · QF Newcastle United 73% · SF Fenerbahçe 75%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
319
Newcastle United
Europa League 2013Quarterfinals
R16 Anzhi Makhachkala 40%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
320
Celta Vigo
Europa League 2017Semifinals
R16 FC Krasnodar 58% · QF Racing Genk 69%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
321
Újpesti Dózsa
Champions League 1972Quarterfinals
R16 Valencia 40%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
322
Liverpool
Champions League 2022Runner-up
R16 Inter Milan 67% · QF Benfica 80% · SF Villarreal 75%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
323
France
World Cup 1986Semifinals
R16 Italy 66% · QF Brazil 61% pens
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
324
Braga
Europa League 2016Quarterfinals
R16 Fenerbahçe 40%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
325
Uruguay
World Cup 1970Semifinals
QF Soviet Union 41%
1 in 2.5
odds of the run
326
FC Twente
Europa League 2011Quarterfinals
R16 Zenit 41%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
327
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2005Quarterfinals
R16 Arsenal 41%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
328
Dundee United
Champions League 1984Semifinals
R16 Standard Liège 55% · QF Rapid Wien 75%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
329
Standard Liège
Champions League 1962Semifinals
R16 Valkeakosken Haka 93% · QF Rangers 44%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
330
Germany
World Cup 2006Semifinals
R16 Sweden 69% · QF Argentina 60% pens
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
331
Turkey
Euro 2008Semifinals
QF Croatia 42% pens
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
332
RB Leipzig
Europa League 2018Quarterfinals
R16 Zenit 42%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
333
Valencia
Europa League 2019Semifinals
R16 FC Krasnodar 67% · QF Villarreal 63%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
334
Inter Milan
Champions League 2011Quarterfinals
R16 Bayern Munich 42%
1 in 2.4
odds of the run
335
Valencia
Europa League 2012Semifinals
R16 PSV Eindhoven 61% · QF AZ Alkmaar 70%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
336
Arsenal
Europa League 2021Semifinals
R16 Olympiacos 67% · QF Slavia Prague 64%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
337
Argentina
World Cup 2026Runner-up
R32 Cape Verde 96% · R16 Egypt 92% · QF Switzerland 78% · SF England 63%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
338
AZ Alkmaar
Europa League 2012Quarterfinals
R16 Udinese 43%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
339
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 2021Quarterfinals
R16 Sevilla 43%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
340
Burnley
Champions League 1961Quarterfinals
R16 Reims 44%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
341
Uruguay
World Cup 2010Semifinals
R16 South Korea 61% · QF Ghana 71% pens
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
342
France
Euro 2016Runner-up
R16 Republic of Ireland 86% · QF Iceland 91% · SF Germany 56%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
343
Juventus
Champions League 2005Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 44%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
344
PSV Eindhoven
Champions League 1990Quarterfinals
R16 Steaua București 44%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
345
Juventus
Champions League 1968Semifinals
R16 Rapid București 86% · QF Eintracht Braunschweig 51%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
346
Schalke 04
Champions League 2008Quarterfinals
R16 FC Porto 44% pens
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
347
Rubin Kazan
Europa League 2013Quarterfinals
R16 Levante 44%
1 in 2.3
odds of the run
348
FC Basel
Europa League 2014Quarterfinals
R16 Red Bull Salzburg 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
349
Sparta Prague
Champions League 1968Quarterfinals
R16 Anderlecht 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
350
Brazil
World Cup 1998Runner-up
R16 Chile 85% · QF Denmark 77% · SF Netherlands 68% pens
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
351
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2016Semifinals
R16 Juventus 59% · QF Benfica 76%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
352
AZ Alkmaar
Europa League 2014Quarterfinals
R16 Anzhi Makhachkala 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
353
Germany
Euro 2008Runner-up
QF Portugal 64% · SF Turkey 70%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
354
Juventus
Champions League 1998Runner-up
QF Dynamo Kyiv 76% · SF Monaco 59%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
355
Inter Milan
Champions League 2003Semifinals
QF Valencia 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
356
Yugoslavia
World Cup 1990Quarterfinals
R16 Spain 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
357
Celta Vigo
Europa League 2026Quarterfinals
R16 Lyon 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
358
Ukraine
Euro 2020Quarterfinals
R16 Sweden 45%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
359
Club Brugge
Europa League 2015Quarterfinals
R16 Beşiktaş 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
360
Legia Warsaw
Champions League 1971Quarterfinals
R16 Standard Liège 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
361
Manchester United
Champions League 2019Quarterfinals
R16 Paris Saint-Germain 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
362
Valencia
Champions League 2007Quarterfinals
R16 Inter Milan 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
363
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 1998Semifinals
QF Bayern Munich 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
364
Atlético Madrid
Champions League 2022Quarterfinals
R16 Manchester United 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
365
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2026Semifinals
R16 Atalanta 75% · QF Real Madrid 61%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
366
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Champions League 1985Quarterfinals
R16 Levski Sofia 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
367
Club Brugge
Champions League 1977Quarterfinals
R16 Real Madrid 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
368
Anderlecht
Champions League 1975Quarterfinals
R16 Olympiacos 46%
1 in 2.2
odds of the run
369
Atalanta
Champions League 2020Quarterfinals
R16 Valencia 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
370
Chelsea
Champions League 2007Semifinals
R16 FC Porto 73% · QF Valencia 64%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
371
United States
World Cup 2002Quarterfinals
R16 Mexico 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
372
AC Milan
Champions League 2012Quarterfinals
R16 Arsenal 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
373
Real Madrid
Champions League 1980Semifinals
R16 Porto 66% · QF Celtic 71%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
374
Manchester United
Champions League 1957Semifinals
R16 Borussia Dortmund 83% · QF Athletic Bilbao 57%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
375
Ajax
Champions League 1997Semifinals
QF Atlético Madrid 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
376
Ajax
Champions League 1996Runner-up
QF Borussia Dortmund 62% · SF Panathinaikos 76%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
377
Schalke 04
Europa League 2017Quarterfinals
R16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
378
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 2025Quarterfinals
R16 Lille 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
379
Racing Genk
Europa League 2017Quarterfinals
R16 KAA Gent 47%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
380
Lazio
Europa League 2013Quarterfinals
R16 VfB Stuttgart 48%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
381
PSV Eindhoven
Champions League 1976Semifinals
R16 Ruch Chorzów 73% · QF Hajduk Split 66%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
382
Partizan
Champions League 1956Quarterfinals
R16 Sporting CP 48%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
383
Hajduk Split
Champions League 1976Quarterfinals
R16 Molenbeek 48%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
384
Barcelona
Champions League 2025Semifinals
R16 Benfica 69% · QF Borussia Dortmund 70%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
385
Lyon
Europa League 2014Quarterfinals
R16 Viktoria Plzeň 48%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
386
Real Madrid
Champions League 1973Semifinals
R16 Argeș Pitești 78% · QF Dynamo Kyiv 62%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
387
Dynamo Kyiv
Europa League 2015Quarterfinals
R16 Everton 48%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
388
Ukraine
World Cup 2006Quarterfinals
R16 Switzerland 49% pens
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
389
Eintracht Frankfurt
Europa League 2025Quarterfinals
R16 Ajax 49%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
390
Chelsea
Champions League 2014Semifinals
R16 Galatasaray 77% · QF Paris Saint-Germain 64%
1 in 2.1
odds of the run
391
Benfica
Europa League 2010Quarterfinals
R16 Marseille 49%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
392
Everton
Champions League 1971Quarterfinals
R16 Borussia Mönchengladbach 49% pens
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
393
Wacker
Champions League 1978Quarterfinals
R16 Celtic 49%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
394
Belgium
World Cup 2014Quarterfinals
R16 United States 49%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
395
Poland
Euro 2016Quarterfinals
R16 Switzerland 49% pens
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
396
Real Madrid
Champions League 2011Semifinals
R16 Lyon 73% · QF Tottenham Hotspur 68%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
397
Sweden
World Cup 1994Semifinals
R16 Saudi Arabia 83% · QF Romania 60% pens
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
398
England
Euro 1996Semifinals
QF Spain 50% pens
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
399
Republic of Ireland
World Cup 1990Quarterfinals
R16 Romania 50% pens
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
400
Valencia
Europa League 2014Semifinals
R16 Ludogorets Razgrad 79% · QF FC Basel 63%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
401
Reims
Champions League 1963Quarterfinals
R16 Austria Wien 50%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
402
FC Porto
Europa League 2014Quarterfinals
R16 Napoli 50%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
403
FC Porto
Champions League 2009Quarterfinals
R16 Atlético Madrid 50%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run
404
Atalanta
Europa League 2022Quarterfinals
R16 Bayer Leverkusen 50%
1 in 2.0
odds of the run

Ratings: World Football Elo (national teams, entering each tournament) and ClubElo (clubs, entering each knockout phase). The number is the chance of winning exactly the matches they won, against the opponents they actually faced — knockout rounds only. Click any run to open its bracket with the path traced in gold. Full method: methodology & data coverage.