Circular Brackets
The Path Difficulty Index

The hardest roads to the trophy

Every one of 87 champions across 87 tournaments, ranked not by how unlikely their win was, but by how hard the road was — the exact gauntlet of opponents they had to beat.

Method: for each knockout win, we take the opponent's Elo entering the tournament and compute the chance a fixed benchmark contender (Elo 1900) would beat them; multiplying across the run gives the odds that a strong-but-not-elite side survives the same road. Using one reference team — rather than the champion's own rating — measures the road itself, so it rewards both the quality and the number of tough opponents. This is the mirror of the Improbability Index: that asks “how unlikely was it for them?”, this asks “how hard was it for anyone?”

1
Spain
World Cup 2026🏆 Champion
R32 Austria 1830 · R16 Portugal 1989 · QF Belgium 1894 · SF France 2063 · F Argentina 2115
1978
avg opp Elo
1 in 138
top side survives
2
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2026🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 1934 · QF Liverpool 1952 · SF Bayern Munich 1988 · F Arsenal 2070 pens
1986
avg opp Elo
1 in 51
top side survives
3
Italy
Euro 2020🏆 Champion
R16 Austria 1746 · QF Belgium 2099 · SF Spain 2033 pens · F England 1981 pens
1965
avg opp Elo
1 in 48
top side survives
4
Real Madrid
Champions League 2022🏆 Champion
R16 Paris Saint-Germain 1923 · QF Chelsea 1931 · SF Manchester City 2026 · F Liverpool 2000
1970
avg opp Elo
1 in 40
top side survives
5
Germany
World Cup 2014🏆 Champion
R16 Algeria 1625 · QF France 1896 · SF Brazil 2138 · F Argentina 2018
1919
avg opp Elo
1 in 35
top side survives
6
Real Madrid
Champions League 2014🏆 Champion
R16 Schalke 04 1821 · QF Borussia Dortmund 1908 · SF Bayern Munich 2093 · F Atlético Madrid 1922
1936
avg opp Elo
1 in 29
top side survives
7
Argentina
World Cup 2022🏆 Champion
R16 Australia 1720 · QF Netherlands 2040 pens · SF Croatia 1926 · F France 2004 pens
1923
avg opp Elo
1 in 27
top side survives
8
France
World Cup 1998🏆 Champion
R16 Paraguay 1742 · QF Italy 1971 pens · SF Croatia 1874 · F Brazil 2091
1920
avg opp Elo
1 in 26
top side survives
9
Spain
Euro 2024🏆 Champion
R16 Georgia 1666 · QF Germany 1919 · SF France 2076 · F England 1980
1910
avg opp Elo
1 in 26
top side survives
10
Paris Saint-Germain
Champions League 2025🏆 Champion
R16 Liverpool 2005 pens · QF Aston Villa 1784 · SF Arsenal 1979 · F Inter Milan 1945
1928
avg opp Elo
1 in 25
top side survives
11
Real Madrid
Champions League 2018🏆 Champion
R16 Paris Saint-Germain 1907 · QF Juventus 1968 · SF Bayern Munich 1967 · F Liverpool 1889
1933
avg opp Elo
1 in 24
top side survives
12
Barcelona
Champions League 2015🏆 Champion
R16 Manchester City 1927 · QF Paris Saint-Germain 1831 · SF Bayern Munich 2036 · F Juventus 1895
1922
avg opp Elo
1 in 23
top side survives
13
Liverpool
Champions League 2019🏆 Champion
R16 Bayern Munich 1939 · QF Porto 1809 · SF Barcelona 2023 · F Tottenham Hotspur 1904
1919
avg opp Elo
1 in 22
top side survives
14
Real Madrid
Champions League 2017🏆 Champion
R16 Napoli 1817 · QF Bayern Munich 2006 · SF Atlético Madrid 1937 · F Juventus 1919
1920
avg opp Elo
1 in 22
top side survives
15
Real Madrid
Champions League 2024🏆 Champion
R16 RB Leipzig 1809 · QF Manchester City 2052 · SF Bayern Munich 1940 · F Borussia Dortmund 1856
1914
avg opp Elo
1 in 22
top side survives
16
Spain
World Cup 2010🏆 Champion
R16 Portugal 1876 · QF Paraguay 1764 · SF Germany 1957 · F Netherlands 2043
1910
avg opp Elo
1 in 21
top side survives
17
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2013🏆 Champion
R16 Arsenal 1797 · QF Juventus 1823 · SF Barcelona 2076 · F Borussia Dortmund 1928
1906
avg opp Elo
1 in 21
top side survives
18
France
World Cup 2018🏆 Champion
R16 Argentina 1985 · QF Uruguay 1893 · SF Belgium 1935 · F Croatia 1853
1917
avg opp Elo
1 in 20
top side survives
19
West Germany
World Cup 1990🏆 Champion
R16 Netherlands 2033 · QF Czechoslovakia 1855 · SF England 1944 pens · F Argentina 1794
1907
avg opp Elo
1 in 20
top side survives
20
Chelsea
Champions League 2021🏆 Champion
R16 Atlético Madrid 1931 · QF Porto 1792 · SF Real Madrid 1901 · F Manchester City 2008
1908
avg opp Elo
1 in 19
top side survives
21
Barcelona
Champions League 2011🏆 Champion
R16 Arsenal 1887 · QF Shakhtar Donetsk 1845 · SF Real Madrid 1964 · F Manchester United 1949
1911
avg opp Elo
1 in 19
top side survives
22
Manchester City
Champions League 2023🏆 Champion
R16 RB Leipzig 1839 · QF Bayern Munich 2003 · SF Real Madrid 1932 · F Inter Milan 1838
1903
avg opp Elo
1 in 18
top side survives
23
Barcelona
Champions League 2009🏆 Champion
R16 Lyon 1836 · QF Bayern Munich 1823 · SF Chelsea 1935 · F Manchester United 2003
1899
avg opp Elo
1 in 17
top side survives
24
Brazil
World Cup 1994🏆 Champion
R16 United States 1614 · QF Netherlands 1990 · SF Sweden 1906 · F Italy 1986 pens
1874
avg opp Elo
1 in 17
top side survives
25
Argentina
World Cup 1986🏆 Champion
R16 Uruguay 1832 · QF England 1989 · SF Belgium 1823 · F West Germany 1940
1896
avg opp Elo
1 in 17
top side survives
26
Greece
Euro 2004🏆 Champion
QF France 2056 · SF Czech Republic 1957 · F Portugal 1899
1971
avg opp Elo
1 in 16
top side survives
27
Manchester United
Champions League 2008🏆 Champion
R16 Lyon 1811 · QF Roma 1833 · SF Barcelona 1976 · F Chelsea 1958 pens
1895
avg opp Elo
1 in 16
top side survives
28
Inter Milan
Champions League 2010🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 1942 · QF CSKA Moscow 1704 · SF Barcelona 2001 · F Bayern Munich 1888
1884
avg opp Elo
1 in 16
top side survives
29
Chelsea
Champions League 2012🏆 Champion
R16 Napoli 1715 · QF Benfica 1863 · SF Barcelona 2038 · F Bayern Munich 1886 pens
1876
avg opp Elo
1 in 15
top side survives
30
France
Euro 2000🏆 Champion
QF Spain 2018 · SF Portugal 1908 · F Italy 1929
1952
avg opp Elo
1 in 13
top side survives
31
Spain
Euro 2008🏆 Champion
QF Italy 2032 pens · SF Russia 1801 · F Germany 1960
1931
avg opp Elo
1 in 12
top side survives
32
Italy
World Cup 2006🏆 Champion
R16 Australia 1798 · QF Ukraine 1790 · SF Germany 1895 · F France 1971 pens
1864
avg opp Elo
1 in 12
top side survives
33
Liverpool
Champions League 2005🏆 Champion
R16 Bayer Leverkusen 1812 · QF Juventus 1839 · SF Chelsea 1942 · F AC Milan 1869 pens
1866
avg opp Elo
1 in 11
top side survives
34
Barcelona
Champions League 2006🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 1966 · QF Benfica 1658 · SF AC Milan 1910 · F Arsenal 1847
1845
avg opp Elo
1 in 11
top side survives
35
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2001🏆 Champion
QF Manchester United 1942 · SF Real Madrid 1944 · F Valencia 1913 pens
1933
avg opp Elo
1 in 11
top side survives
36
Bayern Munich
Champions League 2020🏆 Champion
R16 Chelsea 1844 · QF Barcelona 1973 · SF Lyon 1684 · F Paris Saint-Germain 1883
1846
avg opp Elo
1 in 11
top side survives
37
Italy
World Cup 1982🏆 Champion
SF Poland 1958 · F West Germany 2110
2034
avg opp Elo
1 in 10
top side survives
38
Atalanta
Europa League 2024🏆 Champion
R16 Sporting CP 1786 · QF Liverpool 1960 · SF Marseille 1734 · F Bayer Leverkusen 1891
1843
avg opp Elo
1 in 10
top side survives
39
Brazil
World Cup 2002🏆 Champion
R16 Belgium 1837 · QF England 1924 · SF Turkey 1757 · F Germany 1869
1847
avg opp Elo
1 in 10
top side survives
40
FC Porto
Champions League 2004🏆 Champion
R16 Manchester United 1904 · QF Lyon 1789 · SF Deportivo La Coruña 1884 · F AS Monaco 1809
1847
avg opp Elo
1 in 9.4
top side survives
41
AC Milan
Champions League 2007🏆 Champion
R16 Celtic 1675 · QF Bayern Munich 1788 · SF Manchester United 1951 · F Liverpool 1895
1827
avg opp Elo
1 in 9.0
top side survives
42
Real Madrid
Champions League 2016🏆 Champion
R16 Roma 1769 · QF VfL Wolfsburg 1761 · SF Manchester City 1850 · F Atlético Madrid 1945 pens
1831
avg opp Elo
1 in 8.6
top side survives
43
Milan
Champions League 1990🏆 Champion
R16 Real Madrid 1882 · QF Mechelen 1799 · SF Bayern Munich 1880 · F Benfica 1746
1827
avg opp Elo
1 in 7.9
top side survives
44
Germany
Euro 1996🏆 Champion
QF Croatia 1904 · SF England 1885 pens · F Czech Republic 1906
1898
avg opp Elo
1 in 7.9
top side survives
45
Portugal
Euro 2016🏆 Champion
R16 Croatia 1818 · QF Poland 1765 pens · SF Wales 1654 · F France 1974
1803
avg opp Elo
1 in 7.5
top side survives
46
Real Madrid
Champions League 2000🏆 Champion
QF Manchester United 1938 · SF Bayern Munich 1864 · F Valencia 1844
1882
avg opp Elo
1 in 7.0
top side survives
47
Manchester United
Champions League 1999🏆 Champion
QF Inter Milan 1880 · SF Juventus 1865 · F Bayern Munich 1900
1882
avg opp Elo
1 in 6.9
top side survives
48
Brazil
World Cup 1970🏆 Champion
QF Peru 1693 · SF Uruguay 1869 · F Italy 2007
1856
avg opp Elo
1 in 6.8
top side survives
49
Aston Villa
Champions League 1982🏆 Champion
R16 BFC Dynamo 1799 · QF Dynamo Kyiv 1749 · SF Anderlecht 1776 · F Bayern Munich 1893
1804
avg opp Elo
1 in 6.5
top side survives
50
Real Madrid
Champions League 2002🏆 Champion
QF Bayern Munich 1892 · SF Barcelona 1849 · F Bayer Leverkusen 1868
1870
avg opp Elo
1 in 6.3
top side survives
51
Real Madrid
Champions League 1998🏆 Champion
QF Bayer Leverkusen 1859 · SF Borussia Dortmund 1842 · F Juventus 1903
1868
avg opp Elo
1 in 6.2
top side survives
52
Spain
Euro 2012🏆 Champion
QF France 1867 · SF Portugal 1865 pens · F Italy 1849
1860
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.8
top side survives
53
Ajax
Champions League 1972🏆 Champion
R16 Marseille 1651 · QF Arsenal 1867 · SF Benfica 1720 · F Inter Milan 1857
1774
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.5
top side survives
54
Villarreal
Europa League 2021🏆 Champion
R16 Dynamo Kyiv 1655 · QF Dinamo Zagreb 1687 · SF Arsenal 1826 · F Manchester United 1908 pens
1769
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.4
top side survives
55
Sevilla
Europa League 2023🏆 Champion
R16 Fenerbahçe 1661 · QF Man United 1873 · SF Juventus 1789 · F Roma 1778 pens
1775
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.3
top side survives
56
Eintracht Frankfurt
Europa League 2022🏆 Champion
R16 Real Betis 1745 · QF Barcelona 1876 · SF West Ham United 1814 · F Rangers 1656 pens
1773
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.3
top side survives
57
PSV Eindhoven
Champions League 1988🏆 Champion
R16 Rapid Wien 1712 · QF Bordeaux 1687 · SF Real Madrid 1936 · F Benfica 1717 pens
1763
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.2
top side survives
58
Sevilla
Europa League 2016🏆 Champion
R16 FC Basel 1719 · QF Athletic Club 1825 pens · SF Shakhtar Donetsk 1792 · F Liverpool 1769
1776
avg opp Elo
1 in 5.0
top side survives
59
Inter Milan
Champions League 1964🏆 Champion
R16 Monaco 1683 · QF Partizan 1635 · SF Borussia Dortmund 1664 · F Real Madrid 1970
1738
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.9
top side survives
60
Sevilla
Europa League 2014🏆 Champion
R16 Real Betis 1661 pens · QF FC Porto 1781 · SF Valencia 1791 · F Benfica 1836 pens
1767
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.9
top side survives
61
Atlético Madrid
Europa League 2010🏆 Champion
R16 Sporting CP 1721 · QF Valencia 1802 · SF Liverpool 1836 · F Fulham 1721
1770
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.9
top side survives
62
Borussia Dortmund
Champions League 1997🏆 Champion
QF Auxerre 1772 · SF Manchester United 1802 · F Juventus 1911
1828
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.8
top side survives
63
Real Madrid
Champions League 1966🏆 Champion
R16 Kilmarnock 1712 · QF Anderlecht 1699 · SF Inter Milan 1935 · F Partizan 1627
1743
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.7
top side survives
64
Milan
Champions League 2003🏆 Champion
QF Ajax 1763 · SF Inter Milan 1839 · F Juventus 1879 pens
1827
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.7
top side survives
65
Liverpool
Champions League 1978🏆 Champion
R16 Dynamo Dresden 1794 · QF Benfica 1727 · SF Borussia Mönchengladbach 1789 · F Club Brugge 1753
1766
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.6
top side survives
66
Nottingham Forest
Champions League 1980🏆 Champion
R16 Argeș Pitești 1508 · QF BFC Dynamo 1780 · SF Ajax 1780 · F Hamburger SV 1866
1734
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.5
top side survives
67
Sevilla
Europa League 2015🏆 Champion
R16 Villarreal 1835 · QF Zenit 1787 · SF Fiorentina 1744 · F Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 1620
1747
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.3
top side survives
68
Chelsea
Europa League 2019🏆 Champion
R16 Dynamo Kyiv 1677 · QF Slavia Prague 1652 · SF Eintracht Frankfurt 1775 pens · F Arsenal 1857
1740
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.2
top side survives
69
Real Madrid
Champions League 1957🏆 Champion
R16 Rapid Wien 1716 · QF Nice 1627 · SF Manchester United 1838 · F Fiorentina 1774
1739
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.1
top side survives
70
Juventus
Champions League 1996🏆 Champion
QF Real Madrid 1760 · SF Nantes 1700 · F Ajax 1923 pens
1794
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.1
top side survives
71
Real Madrid
Champions League 1958🏆 Champion
R16 Royal Antwerp 1581 · QF Sevilla 1761 · SF Vasas 1825 · F Milan 1760
1732
avg opp Elo
1 in 4.0
top side survives
72
Real Madrid
Champions League 1960🏆 Champion
R16 Jeunesse Esch 1231 · QF Nice 1694 · SF Barcelona 1944 · F Eintracht Frankfurt 1684
1638
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.9
top side survives
73
Atlético Madrid
Europa League 2012🏆 Champion
R16 Beşiktaş 1614 · QF Hannover 96 1730 · SF Valencia 1820 · F Athletic Club 1764
1732
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.9
top side survives
74
Manchester United
Champions League 1968🏆 Champion
R16 Sarajevo 1572 · QF Górnik Zabrze 1536 · SF Real Madrid 1900 · F Benfica 1761
1692
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.7
top side survives
75
Bayern Munich
Champions League 1975🏆 Champion
R16 Magdeburg 1787 · QF Ararat Yerevan 1665 · SF Saint-Étienne 1616 · F Leeds United 1817
1721
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.7
top side survives
76
Chelsea
Europa League 2013🏆 Champion
R16 Steaua Bucharest 1637 · QF Rubin Kazan 1698 · SF FC Basel 1683 · F Benfica 1853
1718
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.6
top side survives
77
Liverpool
Champions League 1984🏆 Champion
R16 Athletic Bilbao 1743 · QF Benfica 1774 · SF Dinamo București 1639 · F Roma 1735 pens
1723
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.5
top side survives
78
Aston Villa
Europa League 2026🏆 Champion
R16 Lille 1711 · QF Bologna 1690 · SF Nottingham Forest 1789 · F SC Freiburg 1685
1719
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.4
top side survives
79
Inter Milan
Champions League 1965🏆 Champion
R16 Dinamo București 1516 · QF Rangers 1741 · SF Liverpool 1681 · F Benfica 1837
1694
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.4
top side survives
80
Ajax
Champions League 1995🏆 Champion
QF Hajduk Split 1571 · SF Bayern Munich 1787 · F Milan 1885
1748
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.4
top side survives
81
Ajax
Champions League 1971🏆 Champion
R16 Basel 1555 · QF Celtic 1866 · SF Atlético Madrid 1781 · F Panathinaikos 1431
1658
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.3
top side survives
82
Manchester United
Europa League 2017🏆 Champion
R16 FC Rostov 1708 · QF Anderlecht 1705 · SF Celta Vigo 1742 · F Ajax 1709
1716
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.3
top side survives
83
Juventus
Champions League 1985🏆 Champion
R16 Grasshopper 1633 · QF Sparta Prague 1687 · SF Bordeaux 1712 · F Liverpool 1794
1707
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.2
top side survives
84
Hamburger SV
Champions League 1983🏆 Champion
R16 Olympiacos 1521 · QF Dynamo Kyiv 1724 · SF Real Sociedad 1774 · F Juventus 1740
1690
avg opp Elo
1 in 3.1
top side survives
85
Tottenham
Europa League 2025🏆 Champion
R16 AZ Alkmaar 1644 · QF Eintracht Frankfurt 1718 · SF Bodø/Glimt 1619 · F Man United 1753
1684
avg opp Elo
1 in 2.8
top side survives
86
Milan
Champions League 1963🏆 Champion
R16 Ipswich Town 1652 · QF Galatasaray 1495 · SF Dundee 1674 · F Benfica 1814
1659
avg opp Elo
1 in 2.8
top side survives
87
Real Madrid
Champions League 1956🏆 Champion
R16 Servette 1350 · QF Partizan 1614 · SF Milan 1705 · F Reims 1626
1574
avg opp Elo
1 in 2.0
top side survives

Ratings: World Football Elo (national teams, entering each tournament) and ClubElo (clubs, entering each knockout phase) — the two systems sit on the same ~1500–2100 scale, so a combined ranking is fair. “Avg opp Elo” is the mean rating of the teams beaten; “1 in X” is a benchmark contender's odds of running the whole gauntlet. Knockout rounds only; penalty shootouts counted as near coin-flips. Click any champion to open its bracket with the winning road traced in gold. Full data: path-difficulty.json · full method: methodology & data coverage.